A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
